sea farming

the world’s population is exploding. at our current world growth rate of 1.14%, the earth’s population will double every 50 years. and even if growth slows, we still have to figure out how to feed everyone.

this could be a slight problem.

first, of the earth’s 57million square miles of land, only about 12million (20%) are arable. land may be useless for many reasons that are, effectively, impossible to fix: too hot (desert), too cold (arctic), too rocky, too mountainous, too salty, too rainy, or too snowy. we do have control over some reasons for loss – such as development, pollution, and nutrient depletion – but the thorn in our collective side is water. i’ve written about water in a previous post, so i’ll skip the political economy in this one. for now, just note that 40% of our irrigation comes from ground water (i.e. not rain or “surface water”) and that we are using our ground water at 125% of its replacement rate.

the second problem is the income effect on food demand. as people get wealthier – which technology is making possible despite our burgeoning population – they don’t simply consume more food, they consume better food. they will demand food with large amounts of protein, sugar, fat, and oil; food like fruits, nuts, and meat. this effect makes sense because, from the individual’s standpoint, they are getting more efficient food that contains more energy and nutrition per pound than simple stuff like grains. but, like all things, this comes at a cost, which is that it takes more effort and resources to get the same amount of energy into these rich foods than into simpler foods like grains. to a certain extent, the animals we eat are actually competing with us for land, eating just as much grain as the human population. hence, the strain on resources will increase faster than we would expect from population growth, alone.

the upshot of all this – and the subject of this post – is our inevitable shift in food production to sea farming. right now, it’s a nascent industry, but i’m confident that it will soon become a major source of food for reasons that parallel the problems, above. first, because it does not require fresh water, and second, because fish – unlike land animals – don’t compete with us for arable land.

one of the major obstacles i foresee is that, as the industry expands, it will move farther and farther off-shore, and most likely into international waters. this, in turn, could spur a large increase in maritime activity - both good and bad.

newfound wealth at sea will require protection and dispute resolution, further down the line. in the meantime, i’m trying to find a way to invest in these guys.